Preliminary PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales & CPI – It’s PMI day! The preliminary PMIs for the major industrial countries will be released. This time only, Markit will release a flash PMI for the UK together with the others “to help provide clarity on the potential impact of the UK’s EU referendum on the economy.”
The June PMIs were nothing to get excited about; the global PMI was unchanged at 51.1, below its long-run average for 10 consecutive months. According to Markit, in Q2 the global economy recorded its weakest growth of both output and new orders since the end of 2012, while the rate of increase in payrolls fell to the lowest for almost three years.
The weakness is expected to continue in Julyas every PMI forecast is expected to decline from June’s already-depressed level. This could contribute to EUR weaknessif the European PMIs – the first to be released – show greater-than-expected declines. On the other hand, it could later contribute to USD weakness if it means investors further push off their estimate for when – or even if – the Fed raises rates again.
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