Daily Market Report (2015.11.27)
We left yesterday with the USD slipping lower as short term positions were cut ahead of today’s US Thanksgiving holiday. EUR made a new low of 1.0566 but failed to follow though. GBP tried and failed to break 1.5050. Today should be very quiet across the board with US bond and equity markets closed for the day and no US data.
The Asian session had little to focus on apart from some Capital Expenditure data from Australia. The numbers came in worse than expected sending AUD lower from 0.7255 to 0.7220 before making a low of 0.7211. EUR, GBP and JPY would remain in tight 10-15 point ranges until Europe walked in at which point GBP begins to slip lower. There was no evident catalyst, just a market taking advantage of better levels to sell. GBP/USD fell back through 1.5100 to a low of 1.5066. EUR is dragged lower but fails to break 1.0600. USD/JPY edges lower down to 122.50. Asian equities ended mixed with the Nikkei +0.49%, the Shanghai -0.34% and the Hang Seng -0.04%. European equities were far more robust with the market focusing on possible further ECB stimulus. By the time I sit down the DAX is up
As the US day gets going (I really should call it the Canadian day today!), EUR is back to yesterdays close of 1.0620. GBP has bounced to 1.5090 and USD/JPY is 120.55. AUD is 0.7220 and CAD 1.3305. XAU and XAG sit at 1072 and 14.25 respectively. Oil has drifted back to $42.80 a barrel. The big question now is will I actually have anything meaningful to tell you over the next 10 hours!
The first move (and quite possibly the last move) is for GBP to squeeze back above 1.5100 to 1.5130. No real reason just very thin and illiquid markets. EUR comes along for the ride hitting a high of 1.0623. However, as Europe head home much of these moves are reversed, with EUR back to 1.0605 and GBP to 1.5090. AUD also had one brief up to 0.7237 but was soon back under 0.7230. European equities close off their best levels but still significantly higher on the day with the DAX ending +1.35%. XAU and XAG are a spread higher but Oil drops around 1% to $42.50 as tensions between Turkey and Russia appear to ease.
With Europe gone and any unfortunate US traders who are actually at their desk more likely to be distracted by turkey and the Detroit v Philadelphia football game, the market predictably dies a death. At this point, it might be time to put up one chart and then head home in search of turkey!
This is a 1-month USD/JPY chart. As you can see, there was a sharp spike higher on NFP day on Nov. 6. Since then we have made several lows at the same level – 122.24. Next Friday sees the last NFP data for the year, so heading into next week that 122.20 area should be pivotal. Something to keep an eye on.
As we head to the close EUR sits at 1.0608, GBP 1.5100 and JPY 122.58. AUD is 0.7230 and CAD 1.3290. Not much else to say, but tomorrow’s US session is likely to be equally quiet.Tonight we have Japanese CPI followed by the second provisional release of UK GDP for Q3.With that, it is time for me to head home. Good luck my friends and stay nimble.
Overnight data – Actual, Forecast, Previous (US EDT)
19:30 AUD Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q3) -9.8% -5.5% -5.2%
19:30 AUD Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) -8.2% -1.0% -2.9%
19:30 AUD Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) -9.2% -3.0% -4.4%
Today’s Data – Forecast, Previous (US EDT)
18:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) -0.1% -0.1%
18:30 JPY National CPI (YoY) (Oct) 0.0% 0.0%
18:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Oct) 3.4% 3.4%
04:30 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.5% 0.5%
04:30 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3) 2.3% 2.3%
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