Daily Market Report (2015.12.31)
The ultimate day of the year is upon us. Yesterday saw EUR reject 1.1000 and GBP make a new recent low of 1.4786 before recovering late in the day. Oil rallied but failed to break $38. Equities had another positive day with the S&P pushing back into positive territory for the year. Today is very light on data so I am not expecting there to be too much to write about. Let us see how it plays out.
Overnight ranges in FX were tight and by the time I sit down only USD/CAD has moved significantly from the NY close. Of course, Oil was the catalyst, slipping back below $37 a barrel. Asian equities were mixed with both the Nikkei and the Shanghai Index posting modest gains. The Hang Seng closed down just over 0.5%. In Europe shares are marginally lower after yesterday’s impressive rally with the DAX leading the way down 0.6%. US equity futures are pointing to a lower open of around 0.2%.
As my first coffee of the day disappears, EUR sits at 1.0925, GBP 1.4815 and USD/JPY 120.45. AUD is 0.7295, NZD 0.6860 and USD/CAD 1.3875. XAU and XAG have slipped a little lower on the back of Oil down to 1068 and 13.85 respectively. Oil itself is trading at $36.75 a barrel. The first move sees GBP try several attempts at yesterday’s low, but 1.4793 would be as far we go. EUR also tests the downside heading to 1.0908. Oil rallies to $37.25 but cannot hold and slips back to $36.75. As a result, USD/CAD rallies back to 1.3910.
The failure of both EUR and GBP to progress lower is met with a squeeze higher. EUR rallies to 1.0940 and GBP heads back to 1.4849. XAU and XAG both come under pressure, which takes them to 1060 and 13.80. US Pending Home Sales data is mixed, with the monthly number weaker than expected but revisions see the yearly number come in stronger. EUR drops back to 1.0920 and GBP to 1.4825. USD/JPY rallies to 120.60. Oil inventory data comes in higher than expected causing Oil to drop to $36.37 but is back to $36.70 in short order. US equities are subdued with the three major indices all opening down by around 0.3% and holding at that level.
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