Weekly Forex News(2016.02.15)
The dollar rose against other major currencies after improved economic data and rebound in oil prices supporting the expectation that the Federal Reserve is likely to tighten the pace for next rate decision. The retail sales for January rose 0.2%, above 0.1% increase seen. Retail figures excluding cars, fuel, building materials and food services rose 0.6%, rebounding from 0.3% decline in previous month. Also, the upbeat U.S. stocks spurred the preference toward risk assets, rebounded the oil prices by 12%. Solid data boosted the dollar against the yen, changing hands with 0.7% gain at 113.21. The dollar was also higher against the euro with EUR/USD declining 0.6% at 1.1254. The dollar itself rose 0.4% at 95.99 but still ended the week down 3.19% with ongoing concerns over slow global growth.
In the Eurozone, data on Friday showed that the economy only grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter with no improvement. The weaker than expected data increased the expectations that the European Central Bank to ramp up its quantitative easing program as ongoing woes on global outlook persist. EUR/USD traded at 1.1225, declining 0.27% in the latest trade.
Japanese yen held weaker on Monday as gross domestic product data from Tokyo showed weakness in the fourth quarter. The yen still gained against the dollar in a weekly base by 3.19% with increased safe asset preference over ongoing concerns on global outlook from the effects of negative rates on banks. But Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4% quarterly and -1.4% yearly with sluggish consumer spending with slow wage recovery, reduced yen’s gain. USD/JPY changed hands on Monday at 113.57, up 0.32%.On Monday, China reports trade data for January with consensus showing exports to decline 1.9% annually and imports to shrink 0.8% with balance of $58.85 billion. However, retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment figures are excluded this week as the timing of Lunar New Year that distorts the data to have less accurate comparisons.Investors will also be looking ahead to inflation data in U.S. for better indication of rate hike pace that the Federal Reserve will take. Also Canada and the U.K are to release their monthly inflation data.
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, February 15
Markets in the U.S. and Canada are closed for national holidays.
Japan is to release preliminary fourth quarter GDP growth and industrial production figures.
Australia is to publish data on new auto sales.
China is to release its trade balance data.
Eurozone is to produce data on trade balance. Later the day, ECB Governor Mario Draghi is to speak at an the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee in Brussels
Tuesday, February 16
New Zealand is to publish data on retail sales and inflation outlooks.
Bank of Australia is to release minutes on its recent monetary policy meeting.
China is to release data on initial loans and monetary supply.
The U.K. is to release bundle of prices data on consumer and producer price inflation, retail prices and housing prices.
In the Eurozone, ZEW institute is to report on economy outlooks in Germany and business climate.
Canada is to release data on manufacturing sales.
The U.S. is to publish data on New York state manufacturing and housing market index.
Wednesday, February 17
Japan is to publish data on core machinery orders.
China is to report on foreigners direct investments.
The U.K. is to release data on average earnings, new unemployment claims and rates.
The U.S. is to release string of data on building permits, new starts, producer prices inflations, and industrial productions.
The Federal Reserve is to release its recent FOMC meeting minutes later the day.
Thursday, February 18
Australia is to release its monthly employment report.
China is to publish data on producer and consumer price inflations.
Eurozone is to release its recent ECB monetary policy meeting minutes.
Canada is to produce data on wholesale sales.
The U.S. is to report on Philadelphia region manufacturing and initial jobless claims.
Friday, February 19
Germany is to release data on producer price inflation.
The U.K. is to publish data on retail sales.
Canada is to release data on consumer price index and retail sales.
The U.S. is to release data on consumer prices.
The Eurozone is to round up the week with consumer price index.
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