AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast (2016.01.20)

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AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast (2016.01.20)



The AUD/USD is down 35 points to 0.6873 after Westpac consumer sentiment dropped and global stress continued to grow. The Aussie gained on Tuesday after China stepped in to help the current situation with a huge stimulus package.  The Australian dollar has slipped as risk appetite among traders takes another hit. The Australian dollar, often used as a proxy for China-related trades, was down 0.4 percent at 0.6873. The Aussie had risen 0.6 percent on Tuesday as beleaguered Shanghai shares rallied but lost support as Chinese equities buckled again on Wednesday.

Offshore yuan continued falling Wednesday morning, trading at 6.5999, down 0.15 per cent from Tuesday. Onshore yuan was unchanged at 6.5784. The currency gained 0.01 per cent on Tuesday.

The spread between the onshore and offshore yuan has narrowed down to 275 basis points, down from a record 1,400 basis points on January 7.

The Shanghai Composite Index finished the morning session at 2,966.66, down 1.37 per cent or 41.08 points. The CSI 300 fell 1.64 per cent or 52.80 points to end at 3,170.33 by lunch break.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

  USDTIC Net Long-Term Transactions31.4B -17.7B
  NZDCPI (YoY) (Q4)0.1%0.4%0.4% 
  NZDCPI (QoQ) (Q4)-0.5%-0.2%0.3% 
  AUDWestpac Consumer Sentiment (Jan)-3.5% -0.8%


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday January 21, 2016

Cur. EventActualForecastPrevious
  NZDBusiness NZ PMI (Dec)  54.7 
  USDAPI Weekly Crude Oil Stock  -3.900M 
  AUDHIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)  -3.0% 
  GBPRICS House Price Balance (Dec) 50%49% 
  EURDeposit Facility Rate -0.30%-0.30% 
  EURInterest Rate Decision (Jan) 0.05%0.05% 
  USDInitial Jobless Claims 278K284K 
  USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) -5.0-5.9 
  USDPhilly Fed Employment (Jan)  4.1
  EURECB Press Conference    
  USDCrude Oil Inventories  0.234M 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Jan 21 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Jan 21 10:50 France Holds bond auction

Jan 21 19:00 US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Jan 21 17:20 Italy Details of CTZ/linker auction on Jan 28

Jan 21 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on 28 Jan

Jan 21 n/a US Details of 2-yr note auction on Jan 26

Jan 25 11:30 Germany EUR 1.5bn Jan 2017 Bubill

Jan 25 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Jan 27

Jan 25 17:20 Italy Details of BTP/CCTeus on 28 Jan

Jan 26 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ/linker bond auction

Jan 26 n/a US Holds 2-year note auction

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