Crude Oil Technical Analysis (2016.07.12)

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Crude Oil Technical Analysis – The WTI Crude Oil market went back and forth during the course of Monday, as we continue to meander around the $45 level. This of course is a psychologically significant number, but quite frankly the area just above, namely the $46 level, continues to be very resistive as it was previously the support of the descending triangle that I have marked on the chart. Because of this, I believe that the market is going to continue to go lower, perhaps reaching towards the $43 level first, and then possibly the $40 level after that. Any rally at this point in time will have to deal with a bit of bearish pressure, so I believe that rallies will also offer quite a bit of exhaustion that you can sell into given enough patience. I have no interest whatsoever in buying this market at this point in time.


The Brent market of course went back and forth as well, as we bounce around just below the $47 level, and just above the $46 level. This is a market that looks ready to break down, so if we can get below the $46 level on a daily close, I am more than willing to start selling this market and aiming for the $44 level, and perhaps even the $40 level after that. We are broken down below a bit of an uptrend line, so at this point in time I feel that the market is getting ready to roll over, and with that being the case it’s difficult to imagine a situation that I want to serve buying. Even if we do rally, I believe that the market will eventually roll over and show signs of exhaustion, so having said that I would be very patient and simply wait for an exhaustive candle to take advantage of what seems to be an extraordinarily heavy amount of bearish pressure near the $50 level. I’m not looking for a meltdown, just simply a grind lower over the next several weeks in this marketplace.




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