US nonfarm payrolls, Canada unemployment – It’s nonfarm payrolls day today, the biggest day of the month for the FX market (aside from ECB and FOMC meetings, perhaps).
The market consensus forecast for the figure is 200k, which would be about average recently (209k for the last three months). Economists’ forecasts range from 160k to 315k, with the normal (one standard deviation) range being around 175k-225k. Traders are probably looking for a number towards the bottom of that range after Wednesday’sdisappointing ADP report, which estimated that only 156k private-sector jobs were created in April.
Nonetheless, we should remember that the ADP report is not a reliable estimate of the NFP figure. The average difference between the two is some 80k, which is enormous. (The ADP report is a more reliable forecaster of the final NFP figure than it is of the initial NFP figure, but by the time the final figure is released it’s too late.) So it is still possible that we get a number near to the market’s original forecast, which at this point might constitute a positive surprise.
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