US nonfarm payrolls

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US nonfarm payrolls, Canada unemployment – It’s nonfarm payrolls day today, the biggest day of the month for the FX market (aside from ECB and FOMC meetings, perhaps).

US nonfarm payrolls

The market consensus forecast for the figure is 200k, which would be about average recently (209k for the last three months). Economists’ forecasts range from 160k to 315k, with the normal (one standard deviation) range being around 175k-225k. Traders are probably looking for a number towards the bottom of that range after Wednesday’sdisappointing ADP report, which estimated that only 156k private-sector jobs were created in April.

US nonfarm payrolls

Nonetheless, we should remember that the ADP report is not a reliable estimate of the NFP figure. The average difference between the two is some 80k, which is enormous. (The ADP report is a more reliable forecaster of the final NFP figure than it is of the initial NFP figure, but by the time the final figure is released it’s too late.) So it is still possible that we get a number near to the market’s original forecast, which at this point might constitute a positive surprise.



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Saner Says

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Investors were awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday for further indications on the strength of the job market following several negative signs this week. Payroll processing firm ADP said on Wednesday that non-farm private employment rose by 156,000 last month, missing expectations for an increase of 196,000. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending April 29 increased by 17,000 to 274,000 from the previous week’s total of 257,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 3,000 to 260,000 last week.


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